BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

PRE-LINEUP

BOS vs TB

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BOS @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BOSTONBOS
0·0
TAMPA BAYTB
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

BOS DUGOUTTB DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Roman Anthony (L) vs HP

FB93.8
FB93.1
FB93.5
FB93.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Roman Anthony in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · ROMAN ANTHONY

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TB to win

62%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TB -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TB

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TB wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYRoman Anthony at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 77 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

TB Over 3.5 runs

52%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 21-for-65 (.323) with 0 HR vs. this starter, career · 88°F, 10mph wind · pitcher-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETB
LINEUP EDGETB

BOS STARTER

Brayan Bello

AVERAGE
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 40% · 15% whiffChangeup · 20% · 24% whiffCutter · 15% · 47% whiff

TB STARTER

Freddy Peralta

AVERAGE
5.0
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 53% · 22% whiffChangeup · 23% · 29% whiffCurveball · 14% · 33% whiff

Freddy Peralta grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Brayan Bello grades avg (Pitching+ 99)

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Roman Anthony (L)hit 60% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mickey Gasper (S)hit 60% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Adley Rutschman (S)hit 53% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 58% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nick Sogard (S)hit 56% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Trevor Story (R)hit 54% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Caleb Durbin (R)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jarren Duran (L)hit 47% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)hit 50% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Jake Fraleyhit 59% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 72% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 72% · HR 34%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    34%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Liam Hicks (L)hit 63% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 68% · HR 4%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 63% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Richie Palacios (L)hit 55% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cedric Mullins (L)hit 44% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jorge Mateo (R)hit 48% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BOS TB

Game Markets

BOS @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

53%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

TB -1.5

44%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

30%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore BOS by 1.00 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 3.57, TB 4.57
  • Brayan Bello (BOS) vs Freddy Peralta (TB)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
BB

Brayan Bello

BOS SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

81%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 26% to reach 5+ against TB
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 59% to reach 5+ against BOS
JC

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

34%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brayan Bello
VJ

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brayan Bello
JA

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brayan Bello
CS

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Brayan Bello
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
MG

Mickey Gasper

BOS · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
LH

Liam Hicks

TB · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Brayan Bello
RA

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JF

Jake Fraley

TB · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 1
  • Facing Brayan Bello
RP

Richie Palacios

TB · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brayan Bello
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
TS

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
AR

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
IK

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

BOS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JD

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 13%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JM

Jorge Mateo

TB · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brayan Bello
CM

Cedric Mullins

TB · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 23% against 28%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brayan Bello

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.