BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATLANTAATL
90-64 · +1 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 7:10 PM ETHOU HOME PARK
77-77 · +1 AL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
90°F · 8mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Grant Holmes
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+89
ERA
3.49
IP
141.2
K/9
7.0
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS1.88 ERA · 13.8% K · 8.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
32%
10%
8%
Slider4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballCutterChangeup
Hayden Wesneski
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.70
IP
48.2
K/9
7.0
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.13
L5 STARTS2.42 ERA · 19.4% K · 8.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL HOU

Game Markets

ATL @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

41%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

36%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore ATL by 0.61 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 3.91, HOU 4.52
  • Grant Holmes (ATL) vs Hayden Wesneski (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GH

Grant Holmes

ATL SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

55%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against HOU
HW

Hayden Wesneski

HOU SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GRANT HOLMES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.4%OPS-against.746
vs Left-handedK%17.6%OPS-against.674
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.729K%22.1%

HAYDEN WESNESKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.5%OPS-against.658
vs Left-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.643
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.737K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs GRANT HOLMES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs HAYDEN WESNESKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 1·HOU 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATL 1·HOU 0
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%ATL
ATL 46 · HOU 41 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-19ATL 6-2
2025-09-14ATL 8-3
2025-09-13HOU 6-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ATL50¢ · 50%
HOU54¢ · 54%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
ATL -1.5— · —
HOU +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

HOU OFFENSE

.307L15 team wOBA
-9 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT90° · 8mph out to LF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
90°F
Wind8 mph out to LF
Humidity47%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO