BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATH
61-93 · +4 AL WEST · L4 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 6:10 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
79-75 · +1 AL CENTRAL · W3 · 6-4 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
74°F · 7mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jacob Lopez
LHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+93
ERA
5.02
IP
114.2
K/9
8.4
BB/9
4.4
WHIP
1.48
L5 STARTS4.47 ERA · 22.6% K · 8.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
31%
20%
10%
4-Seam FastballSliderCutterChangeupSinker
Tanner Bibee
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
4.16
IP
177.1
K/9
7.1
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.18
L5 STARTS5.13 ERA · 19.7% K · 9.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
23%
22%
16%
10%
CutterSinker4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATH CLE

Game Markets

ATH @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

36%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.86 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: ATH 4.35, CLE 4.51
  • Jacob Lopez (ATH) vs Tanner Bibee (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JL

Jacob Lopez

ATH SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

39%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against CLE
TB

Tanner Bibee

CLE SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

31%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against ATH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JACOB LOPEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.3%OPS-against.839
vs Left-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.603
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.703K%20.7%

TANNER BIBEE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%17.2%OPS-against.650
vs Left-handedK%20.6%OPS-against.738
ATH vs LHP (team)OPS.715K%24.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs JACOB LOPEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs TANNER BIBEE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 0·CLE 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATH 1·CLE 5
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
95%CLE
ATH 4 · CLE 71 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-18CLE 5-3
2026-05-03ATH 7-1 · Blowout
2026-05-02CLE 14-6 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.294L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CLE OFFENSE

.317L15 team wOBA
+1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT74° · 7mph out to LF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
74°F
Wind7 mph out to LF
Humidity52%
Rain22%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO