BETFLYAISIGN IN
WASHINGTONWSH
71-82 · +4 NL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@FRI 8:15 PM ETSTL HOME PARK
75-78 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 4-6 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
92°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Cade Cavalli
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
3.12
IP
164.2
K/9
10.6
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.17
L5 STARTS1.93 ERA · 39.4% K · 6.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
28%
16%
11%
8%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSinkerSweeperChangeup
Kyle Leahy
RHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.33
IP
135.0
K/9
8.5
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.31
L5 STARTS3.14 ERA · 31.9% K · 4.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
16%
16%
13%
13%
13%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerChangeupSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Kyle Leahy · Over 2.5 3+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

-145 Fanatics59% book81% +22pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETNationals 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH STL

Game Markets

WSH @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

STL -1.5

31%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

WSH projects to outscore STL by 0.41 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.36, STL 3.95
  • Cade Cavalli (WSH) vs Kyle Leahy (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CC

Cade Cavalli

WSH SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

56%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 74% to reach 5+ against STL
KL

Kyle Leahy

STL SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

14%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

35%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CADE CAVALLI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.7%OPS-against.611
vs Left-handedK%27.2%OPS-against.692
STL vs RHP (team)OPS.693K%21.3%

KYLE LEAHY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.588
vs Left-handedK%21.0%OPS-against.852
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.737K%20.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs CADE CAVALLI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs KYLE LEAHY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·STL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 5·STL 4
9 played · 10 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%STL
WSH 85 · STL 120 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-04-08STL 6-1
2026-04-07STL 7-6 · One-run game
2026-04-06WSH 9-6 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH51¢ · 51%
STL53¢ · 53%
Total 7.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5— · —
STL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

STL OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT92° · 5mph out to LF
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
92°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity46%
Rain7%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO