BETFLYAISIGN IN
TORONTOTOR
76-77 · +4 AL EAST · W1 · 4-6 L10
@FRI 8:05 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
76-77 · +2 AL WEST · L1 · 6-4 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
94°F · 7mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Dylan Cease
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
2.38
IP
166.1
K/9
12.8
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.06
L5 STARTS2.23 ERA · 30.4% K · 11.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
29%
11%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerCurveballSweeper
Kumar Rocker
RHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
4.54
IP
138.2
K/9
8.6
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.43
L5 STARTS4.86 ERA · 25.2% K · 9.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
31%
14%
12%
SliderSinkerCutter4-Seam FastballChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR TEX

Game Markets

TOR @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

28%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

22%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

47%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

28%

THE READ

TOR projects to outscore TEX by 1.37 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 4.69, TEX 3.32
  • Dylan Cease (TOR) vs Kumar Rocker (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DC

Dylan Cease

TOR SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

95%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

40%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

61%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

24%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

14%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.0 strikeouts
  • 95% to reach 5+ against TEX
KR

Kumar Rocker

TEX SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

DYLAN CEASE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%33.6%OPS-against.556
vs Left-handedK%36.6%OPS-against.526
TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.695K%22.4%

KUMAR ROCKER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.5%OPS-against.670
vs Left-handedK%21.1%OPS-against.835
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.713K%18.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs DYLAN CEASE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs KUMAR ROCKER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 0·TEX 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
TOR 0·TEX 4
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%TOR
TOR 68 · TEX 50 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-28TEX 3-2 · One-run game
2026-06-27TEX 7-4
2026-06-26TEX 5-4 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TOR58¢ · 58%
TEX46¢ · 46%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
TOR -1.5— · —
TEX +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.328L15 team wOBA
+12 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

TEX OFFENSE

.322L15 team wOBA
+6 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT94° · 7mph out to CF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
94°F
Wind7 mph out to CF
Humidity32%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO