BETFLYAISIGN IN
PHILADELPHIAPHI
85-68 · +2 NL EAST · W2 · 5-5 L10
@FRI 7:15 PM ETNYM HOME PARK
69-84 · +5 NL EAST · L5 · 4-6 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
76°F · 5mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Andrew Painter
RHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
5.54
IP
115.1
K/9
7.8
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.44
L5 STARTS3.00 ERA · 23.4% K · 7.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
21%
14%
11%
11%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderSplit-FingerSweeperSinkerCurveball
Zac Thornton
LHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.44
IP
73.1
K/9
6.8
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
1.16
L5 STARTS4.50 ERA · 22.4% K · 2.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
Cutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PHI NYM

Game Markets

PHI @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

29%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore NYM by 0.75 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.95, NYM 4.20
  • Andrew Painter (PHI) vs Zac Thornton (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AP

Andrew Painter

PHI SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

68%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against NYM
ZT

Zac Thornton

NYM SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

76%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against PHI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ANDREW PAINTER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.754
vs Left-handedK%17.8%OPS-against.800
NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.677K%23.4%

ZAC THORNTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.750
vs Left-handedK%16.0%OPS-against.644
PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.710K%21.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs ANDREW PAINTER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PHI BATTERS vs ZAC THORNTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PHI 1·NYM 0
4-game set · gm 2 of 4
2026 SEASON
PHI 6·NYM 4
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%NYM
PHI 134 · NYM 164 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-17PHI 3-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-07-19NYM 6-1
2026-07-18PHI 6-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PHI50¢ · 50%
NYM55¢ · 55%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
PHI -1.5— · —
NYM +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT3.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PHI OFFENSE

.289L15 team wOBA
-27 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYM OFFENSE

.320L15 team wOBA
+4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT76° · 5mph in from CF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind5 mph in from CF
Humidity49%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO