AI MODEL READ
LEAGUE AVGMIL vs BAL
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles
Friday, September 18, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIL @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BAL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BAL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BAL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BAL wins F5
event 1 / 78 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
MIL STARTER
Dustin May
GOOD- 4.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 105
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
BAL STARTER
Cade Povich
SHAKY- 4.1
- PROJECTED Ks
- 88
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Cade Povich grades poor (Pitching+ 88) vs Dustin May grades good (Pitching+ 105)
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
MIL @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
46%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
51%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
31%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore BAL by 0.38 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIL 4.44, BAL 4.06
- Dustin May (MIL) vs Cade Povich (BAL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Dustin May
MIL SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
53%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
23%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 44% to reach 5+ against BAL
Cade Povich
BAL SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
47%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
18%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
- 39% to reach 5+ against MIL
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.