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KANSAS CITYKC
67-86 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
@FRI 6:40 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
76-77 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
75°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Randy Dobnak
RHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
2.73
IP
69.1
K/9
6.1
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.27
L5 STARTS4.30 ERA · 19.5% K · 6.2% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Paul Skenes
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.78
IP
162.0
K/9
10.3
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.13
L5 STARTS3.41 ERA · 17% K · 8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
16%
16%
11%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSweeperSplit-FingerSinkerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Randy Dobnak · Over 2.5 3+ Ks

punch-out artist with the right matchup

-166 FanDuel62% book87% +24pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC PIT

Game Markets

KC @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

53%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

40%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore KC by 0.63 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 4.05, PIT 4.68
  • Randy Dobnak (KC) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RD

Randy Dobnak

KC SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

39%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against PIT
PS

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

RANDY DOBNAK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.1%OPS-against.610
vs Left-handedK%14.5%OPS-against.709
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.751K%23.5%

PAUL SKENES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.0%OPS-against.673
vs Left-handedK%27.0%OPS-against.664
KC vs RHP (team)OPS.721K%20.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs RANDY DOBNAK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

KC BATTERS vs PAUL SKENES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
KC 0·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
KC 0·PIT 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%KC
KC 13 · PIT 12 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-07-09KC 4-3 · One-run game
2025-07-08KC 4-3 · One-run game
2025-07-07KC 9-3 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
KC39¢ · 39%
PIT65¢ · 65%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
KC -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

KC OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PIT OFFENSE

.317L15 team wOBA
+1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT75° · 5mph out to RF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
75°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity65%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO