BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCHC
85-68 · +2 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 4-6 L10
@FRI 6:40 PM ETCIN HOME PARK
71-82 · +5 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 2-8 L10
CINCINNATICIN
Weather
86°F · 9mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Clay Holmes
RHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
2.85
IP
91.2
K/9
7.0
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS3.61 ERA · 18.2% K · 10.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
19%
15%
9%
SinkerSweeperChangeupCurveballCutter
Chase Burns
RHP · CINPROBABLE
STUFF+113
ERA
2.80
IP
151.1
K/9
10.8
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS5.10 ERA · 33.7% K · 9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
57%
37%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETReds 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CHC CIN

Game Markets

CHC @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CIN to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

54%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

46%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

55%

THE READ

CIN projects to outscore CHC by 1.09 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 4.28, CIN 5.37
  • Clay Holmes (CHC) vs Chase Burns (CIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CH

Clay Holmes

CHC SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

49%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against CIN
CB

Chase Burns

CIN SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

26%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

28%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

18%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against CHC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CLAY HOLMES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.6%OPS-against.476
vs Left-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.634
CIN vs RHP (team)OPS.690K%25.7%

CHASE BURNS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%30.2%OPS-against.499
vs Left-handedK%29.0%OPS-against.725
CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.761K%21.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CIN BATTERS vs CLAY HOLMES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CHC BATTERS vs CHASE BURNS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CHC 0·CIN 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CHC 7·CIN 5
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%CIN
CHC 154 · CIN 174 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-30CIN 7-5
2026-08-29CHC 17-5 · Blowout
2026-08-28CIN 10-8 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

CHC OFFENSE

.320L15 team wOBA
+4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

CIN OFFENSE

.301L15 team wOBA
-15 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT86° · 9mph in from CF
GREAT AMERICAN BALL PARK
118HR
HR factor1.18 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

League’s hottest HR park.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
86°F
Wind9 mph in from CF
Humidity60%
Rain6%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO