MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Ranger Suarez · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start
Ian Seymour · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
BOS @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
35%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
38%
Run Line
TB -1.5
39%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
29%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
37%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore BOS by 0.59 runs across 5,000 trials.
BOS SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
76%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
33%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
TB SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
87%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
32%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
42%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
29%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Interim park post-Tropicana damage.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.