WASHINGTONWSH
71-82 · +4 NL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@2026-09-17STL HOME PARK
75-78 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 4-6 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
92°F · 6mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETNationals 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH STL

Game Markets

WSH @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

STL -1.5

31%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

WSH projects to outscore STL by 0.37 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.38, STL 4.01
  • Cade Cavalli (WSH) vs Kyle Leahy (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CC

Cade Cavalli

WSH SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

40%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against STL
KL

Kyle Leahy

STL SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

20%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

STL vs LHP (team)OPS.711K%19.2%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.737K%20.9%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·STL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 5·STL 4
9 played · 10 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%STL
WSH 85 · STL 120 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-04-08STL 6-1
2026-04-07STL 7-6 · One-run game
2026-04-06WSH 9-6 · Slugfest
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH51¢ · 51%
STL53¢ · 53%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5 ·
STL +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

STL OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
ENVIRONMENT92° · 6mph out to CF
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
92°F
Wind6 mph out to CF
Humidity49%
Rain14%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

NATIONALS 51%

Mean score sim 4.44.0 · projected total 8.4 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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