MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Nolan McLean · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Aaron Nola · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
PHI @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
32%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
35%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore NYM by 0.26 runs across 5,000 trials.
PHI SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
11%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
91%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
48%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.
NYM SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
66%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
26%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
51%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Deep OF, dead air.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.