NEW YORKNYY
88-64 · +2 AL EAST · L1 · 7-3 L10
@2026-09-17ARI HOME PARK
ARIZONAARI
Weather
88°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY ARI

Game Markets

NYY @ ARI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

ARI F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

ARI -1.5

30%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore ARI by 0.58 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.68, ARI 4.09
  • Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GC

Gerrit Cole

NYY SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

68%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against ARI
ER

Eduardo Rodriguez

ARI SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

53%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs LHP (team)OPS.776K%18.0%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.712K%24.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYY 0·ARI 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYY 0·ARI 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%NYY
NYY 12 · ARI 0 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-04-03NYY 9-7 · Slugfest
2025-04-02AZ 4-3 · One-run game
2025-04-01AZ 7-5
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYY57¢ · 57%
ARI48¢ · 48%
Total 8.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
NYY -1.5 ·
ARI +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT88.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.317L15 team wOBA
+1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

ARI OFFENSE

.306L15 team wOBA
-10 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT88° · 5mph out to LF
CHASE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Slight offensive tilt.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity47%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

YANKEES 54%

Mean score sim 4.74.1 · projected total 8.8 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read