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MILWAUKEEMIL
95-57 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 7-3 L10
@THU 12:35 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
75-77 · +3 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 5-5 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
79°F · 7mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Kyle Harrison
LHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+106
ERA
3.98
IP
110.2
K/9
10.9
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.31
L5 STARTS9.88 ERA · 22% K · 9.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
59%
30%
9%
4-Seam FastballSlurveChangeup
Wilber Dotel
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
4.84
IP
35.1
K/9
9.2
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS4.39 ERA · 20.6% K · 8.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
49%
20%
20%
4-Seam FastballCutterSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Kyle Harrison · Over 4.5 5+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

-118 DraftKings54% book62% +8pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 60%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL PIT

Game Markets

MIL @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

23%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

26%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore PIT by 1.18 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.41, PIT 3.22
  • Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs Wilber Dotel (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KH

Kyle Harrison

MIL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

9%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

22%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

12%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against PIT
WD

Wilber Dotel

PIT SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

8%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

36%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 26% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KYLE HARRISON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.4%OPS-against.820
vs Left-handedK%27.8%OPS-against.602
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.752K%23.4%

WILBER DOTEL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%16.4%OPS-against.841
vs Left-handedK%30.1%OPS-against.519
MIL vs LHP (team)OPS.710K%21.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs KYLE HARRISON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIL BATTERS vs WILBER DOTEL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIL 2·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIL 6·PIT 7
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%MIL
MIL 166 · PIT 118 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-16MIL 5-4 · One-run game
2026-09-15MIL 5-1
2026-08-06MIL 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIL59¢ · 59%
PIT45¢ · 45%
Total 9
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
MIL -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→7→6.5→7.5→6.5→8.5→9.5→9last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIL OFFENSE

.356L15 team wOBA
+40 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

PIT OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT79° · 7mph out to CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
79°F
Wind7 mph out to CF
Humidity85%
Rain13%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO