MIAMIMIA
76-77 · +3 NL EAST · W2 · 5-5 L10
@2026-09-17SD HOME PARK
84-69 · +2 NL WEST · W2 · 9-1 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
76°F · 9mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA SD

Game Markets

MIA @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

SD -1.5

41%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore MIA by 0.69 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.10, SD 4.79
  • Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs Nick Pivetta (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TP

Tyler Phillips

MIA SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against SD
NP

Nick Pivetta

SD SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

16%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

31%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 30% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

SD vs LHP (team)OPS.702K%21.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.742K%21.5%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 0·SD 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIA 0·SD 3
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
60%SD
MIA 40 · SD 60 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-26SD 5-3
2026-07-25SD 7-2
2026-07-24SD 4-2
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIA38¢ · 38%
SD66¢ · 66%
Total 7.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
MIA -1.5 ·
SD +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.331L15 team wOBA
+15 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

SD OFFENSE

.355L15 team wOBA
+39 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
ENVIRONMENT76° · 9mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind9 mph out to RF
Humidity64%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PADRES 58%

Mean score sim 4.14.8 · projected total 8.9 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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