KANSAS CITYKC
67-86 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
@2026-09-17PIT HOME PARK
76-77 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
80°F · 2mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC PIT

Game Markets

KC @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

54%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

39%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore KC by 0.59 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 4.06, PIT 4.65
  • Randy Dobnak (KC) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RD

Randy Dobnak

KC SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

81%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against PIT
PS

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

17%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 70% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PIT vs LHP (team)OPS.695K%25.4%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

KC vs RHP (team)OPS.721K%20.4%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

KC BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
KC 0·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
KC 0·PIT 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%KC
KC 13 · PIT 12 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-07-09KC 4-3 · One-run game
2025-07-08KC 4-3 · One-run game
2025-07-07KC 9-3 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
KC40¢ · 40%
PIT64¢ · 64%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
KC -1.5 ·
PIT +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT87.58.57.58last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

KC OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PIT OFFENSE

.317L15 team wOBA
+1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
ENVIRONMENT80° · 2mph out to CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind2 mph out to CF
Humidity83%
Rain9%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PIRATES 58%

Mean score sim 4.14.7 · projected total 8.7 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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