AI MODEL READ
PARTIAL LINEUPSKC vs HOU
Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros
Thursday, September 17, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the KC @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Carter Jensen (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Carter Jensen in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CARTER JENSEN
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
HOU to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
HOU -1.5
TEAM TOTAL HOU
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
HOU wins F5
event 1 / 80 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
KC STARTER
Seth Lugo
SHAKY- 2.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- 94
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.
HOU STARTER
Miguel Ullola
GOOD- 5.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Miguel Ullola projects 5.6 Ks vs Seth Lugo grades poor (Pitching+ 94)
KC LINEUP
1Carter Jensen (L)hit 63% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 69% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 68% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
4Maikel Garciahit 62% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
5Michael Massey (L)hit 61% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
6Salvador Perez (R)hit 59% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
7John Rave (L)hit 56% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
8Kyle Isbel (L)hit 51% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
9Isaac Collins (S)hit 50% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
HOU LINEUP
1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 72% · HR 21%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 78% · HR 34%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
78%
1+ HIT
43%
2+ HITS
34%
HOME RUN
60%
2+ BASES
46%
3+ BASES
38%
4+ BASES
48%
RBI
24%
2+ RBIs
58%
SCORES A RUN
3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 61% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
4Jose Altuve (R)hit 61% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
5Yainer Diaz (R)hit 69% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
6Daulton Varsho (L)hit 57% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Taylor Trammell (L)hit 58% · HR 15%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
8Cam Smith (R)hit 56% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
9LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)hit 53% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
KC @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
62%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
56%
Game Total
Over 8.5
50%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
55%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
45%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
35%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
51%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore KC by 1.13 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: KC 3.89, HOU 5.02
- Seth Lugo (KC) vs Miguel Ullola (HOU)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Seth Lugo
KC SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
29%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
56%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
- 16% to reach 5+ against HOU
Miguel Ullola
HOU SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
90%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
73%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
60%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
- 67% to reach 5+ against KC
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Seth Lugo
Jeremy Peña
HOU · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Seth Lugo
Jac Caglianone
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Miguel Ullola
Carter Jensen
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Miguel Ullola
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Miguel Ullola
Yainer Diaz
HOU · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Isaac Paredes
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Seth Lugo
Taylor Trammell
HOU · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Jose Altuve
HOU · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Maikel Garcia
KC · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 4
- Facing Miguel Ullola
Michael Massey
KC · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Miguel Ullola
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Miguel Ullola
Cam Smith
HOU · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Seth Lugo
Daulton Varsho
HOU · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
John Rave
KC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Miguel Ullola
LaMonte Wade Jr.
HOU · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Kyle Isbel
KC · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Miguel Ullola
Isaac Collins
KC · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Miguel Ullola
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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