BETFLYAISIGN IN
BOSTONBOS
82-70 · +3 AL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
@THU 8:05 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
76-76 · +2 AL WEST · W4 · 6-4 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
96°F · 6mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Sonny Gray
RHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
2.76
IP
156.2
K/9
8.0
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.17
L5 STARTS2.61 ERA · 23.8% K · 7.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
20%
20%
19%
18%
17%
CutterSweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveball
Tyler Alexander
LHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.38
IP
66.2
K/9
7.7
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.28
L5 STARTS4.50 ERA · 16% K · 4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
24%
21%
16%
12%
ChangeupCutterSinkerSweeper4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS TEX

Game Markets

BOS @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

38%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.12 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.48, TEX 4.65
  • Sonny Gray (BOS) vs Tyler Alexander (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SG

Sonny Gray

BOS SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

74%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

61%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 52% to reach 5+ against TEX
TA

Tyler Alexander

TEX SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

84%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SONNY GRAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.4%OPS-against.675
vs Left-handedK%23.4%OPS-against.677
TEX vs LHP (team)OPS.768K%23.8%

TYLER ALEXANDER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.674
vs Left-handedK%17.2%OPS-against.638
BOS vs RHP (team)OPS.714K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs SONNY GRAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs TYLER ALEXANDER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·TEX 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
BOS 2·TEX 3
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%BOS
BOS 60 · TEX 54 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-17TEX 7-3
2026-09-16TEX 4-2
2026-06-14TEX 6-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS58¢ · 58%
TEX47¢ · 47%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
TEX +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→7.5→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.306L15 team wOBA
-10 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

TEX OFFENSE

.329L15 team wOBA
+13 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT96° · 6mph out to LF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
96°F
Wind6 mph out to LF
Humidity36%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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