BOSTONBOS
82-70 · +3 AL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
@2026-09-17TB HOME PARK
93-59 · +1 AL EAST · W6 · 8-2 L10
TAMPA BAYTB
Weather
83°F · 13mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS TB

Game Markets

BOS @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

TB -1.5

40%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

29%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore BOS by 0.63 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 3.35, TB 3.98
  • Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs Ian Seymour (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RS

Ranger Suarez

BOS SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against TB
IS

Ian Seymour

TB SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

45%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

74%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.3 strikeouts
  • 93% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

TB vs LHP (team)OPS.691K%17.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

BOS vs RHP (team)OPS.714K%21.5%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

TB BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·TB 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
BOS 9·TB 7
16 played · 3 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%BOS
BOS 194 · TB 187 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-19BOS 6-1
2026-07-18BOS 7-6 · One-run game
2026-07-17BOS 5-3
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS48¢ · 48%
TB56¢ · 56%
Total 7.5
Over49¢ · 49%
Under56¢ · 56%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5 ·
TB +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

TB OFFENSE

.323L15 team wOBA
+7 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
ENVIRONMENT83° · 13mph out to LF
STEINBRENNER FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Interim park post-Tropicana damage.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
83°F
Wind13 mph out to LF
Humidity60%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RAYS 59%

Mean score sim 3.34.0 · projected total 7.3 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read