ATLANTAATL
89-64 · +1 NL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@2026-09-17HOU HOME PARK
77-76 · +1 AL WEST · W1 · 4-6 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
83°F · 4mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL HOU

Game Markets

ATL @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

35%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.23 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: ATL 4.11, HOU 4.12
  • Tyler Mahle (ATL) vs Peter Lambert (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TM

Tyler Mahle

ATL SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

73%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

21%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against HOU
PL

Peter Lambert

HOU SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

63%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

HOU vs LHP (team)OPS.707K%21.0%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.735K%21.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 0·HOU 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATL 0·HOU 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%ATL
ATL 45 · HOU 41 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-09-14ATL 8-3
2025-09-13HOU 6-2
2025-09-12HOU 11-3 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ATL54¢ · 54%
HOU50¢ · 50%
Total 8.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
ATL -1.5 ·
HOU +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.294L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

HOU OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT83° · 4mph out to CF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
83°F
Wind4 mph out to CF
Humidity91%
Rain11%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ASTROS 52%

Mean score sim 4.14.1 · projected total 8.2 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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