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ATH
61-91 · +4 AL WEST · L2 · 5-5 L10
@THU 1:10 PM ETTB HOME PARK
92-59 · +1 AL EAST · W5 · 8-2 L10
TAMPA BAYTB
Weather
88°F · 13mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jeffrey Springs
LHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
5.93
IP
135.0
K/9
7.0
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.45
L5 STARTS5.27 ERA · 14.8% K · 8.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
26%
23%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSweeper
Drew Rasmussen
RHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
2.81
IP
160.1
K/9
9.0
BB/9
1.5
WHIP
0.92
L5 STARTS2.90 ERA · 22.7% K · 3.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
27%
22%
12%
Cutter4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeupCurveballSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 63%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATH TB

Game Markets

ATH @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

55%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

TB -1.5

44%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

29%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore ATH by 1.04 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATH 3.40, TB 4.44
  • Jeffrey Springs (ATH) vs Drew Rasmussen (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JS

Jeffrey Springs

ATH SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

32%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against TB
DR

Drew Rasmussen

TB SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against ATH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JEFFREY SPRINGS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.2%OPS-against.828
vs Left-handedK%16.4%OPS-against.912
TB vs RHP (team)OPS.756K%18.7%

DREW RASMUSSEN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%23.2%OPS-against.500
vs Left-handedK%27.3%OPS-against.593
ATH vs LHP (team)OPS.722K%24.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TB BATTERS vs JEFFREY SPRINGS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs DREW RASMUSSEN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 0·TB 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATH 0·TB 5
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
95%TB
ATH 3 · TB 60 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-16TB 4-3 · One-run game
2026-09-15TB 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-08-12TB 8-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TB OFFENSE

.317L15 team wOBA
+1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT88° · 13mph in from CF
STEINBRENNER FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Interim park post-Tropicana damage.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind13 mph in from CF
Humidity55%
Rain1%

Wind in from CF · HR headwind.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO