BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN FRANCISCOSF
63-89 · +4 NL WEST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@WED 1:15 PM ETSTL HOME PARK
75-77 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
90°F · 4mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Anthony Molina
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
5.24
IP
22.1
K/9
7.7
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS5.65 ERA · 20.7% K · 4.9% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Matthew Liberatore
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
5.53
IP
143.1
K/9
9.2
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.49
L5 STARTS8.08 ERA · 27.5% K · 7.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
23%
17%
15%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballChangeupSinkerCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Matthew Liberatore · Under 16.5 <17 Outs

bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter

-122 Caesars55% book83% +28pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SF STL

Game Markets

SF @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SF to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

STL -1.5

35%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.85 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SF 4.43, STL 4.42
  • Anthony Molina (SF) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AM

Anthony Molina

SF SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 29% to reach 5+ against STL
ML

Matthew Liberatore

STL SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against SF

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ANTHONY MOLINA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%31.4%OPS-against.630
vs Left-handedK%15.8%OPS-against.830
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.711K%19.2%

MATTHEW LIBERATORE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.1%OPS-against.822
vs Left-handedK%23.7%OPS-against.832
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.736K%20.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs ANTHONY MOLINA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SF BATTERS vs MATTHEW LIBERATORE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SF 1·STL 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
SF 4·STL 1
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%STL
SF 56 · STL 60 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-15SF 10-3 · Blowout
2026-09-14STL 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-09-09SF 7-6 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SF43¢ · 43%
STL61¢ · 61%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
SF -1.5— · —
STL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→8→12.5→8.5→8→12.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SF OFFENSE

.324L15 team wOBA
+8 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

STL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT90° · 4mph out to RF
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
90°F
Wind4 mph out to RF
Humidity62%
Rain3%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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