BETFLYAISIGN IN
SEATTLESEA
70-82 · +3 AL WEST · L3 · 4-6 L10
@WED 9:38 PM ETLAA HOME PARK
58-93 · +5 AL WEST · W2 · 5-5 L10
LOS ANGELESLAA
Weather
73°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
George Kirby
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
4.25
IP
165.1
K/9
7.5
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS6.22 ERA · 18.8% K · 6.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
21%
10%
Sweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballChangeupCutter
Yusei Kikuchi
LHP · LAAPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
4.75
IP
53.0
K/9
9.2
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.49
L5 STARTS3.00 ERA · 21.4% K · 9.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
24%
22%
12%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderSplit-FingerCutterCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

George Kirby · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

-120 FanDuel55% book71% +16pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMariners 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SEA LAA

Game Markets

SEA @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

30%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore LAA by 0.60 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SEA 4.67, LAA 4.07
  • George Kirby (SEA) vs Yusei Kikuchi (LAA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GK

George Kirby

SEA SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against LAA
YK

Yusei Kikuchi

LAA SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

45%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against SEA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GEORGE KIRBY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.8%OPS-against.739
vs Left-handedK%18.1%OPS-against.809
LAA vs LHP (team)OPS.690K%24.9%

YUSEI KIKUCHI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.9%OPS-against.808
vs Left-handedK%25.9%OPS-against.793
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.714K%22.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

LAA BATTERS vs GEORGE KIRBY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SEA BATTERS vs YUSEI KIKUCHI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SEA 0·LAA 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
SEA 4·LAA 6
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%LAA
SEA 152 · LAA 168 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-16LAA 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-09-15LAA 6-4
2026-07-03SEA 1-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SEA57¢ · 57%
LAA47¢ · 47%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
SEA -1.5— · —
LAA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→8→7.5→8.5→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SEA OFFENSE

.334L15 team wOBA
+18 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

LAA OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT73° · 8mph out to CF
ANGEL STADIUM
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight pitcher tilt.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
73°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity66%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO