BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN DIEGOSD
82-69 · +2 NL WEST · L1 · 8-2 L10
@WED 8:40 PM ETCOL HOME PARK
56-95 · +5 NL WEST · W1 · 2-8 L10
COLORADOCOL
Weather
82°F · 7mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Robbie Ray
LHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
3.57
IP
156.1
K/9
7.6
BB/9
4.7
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS5.21 ERA · 17.8% K · 15% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
27%
17%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerCurveball
Mason Adams
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.38
IP
18.2
K/9
10.6
BB/9
4.3
WHIP
1.45
L5 STARTS3.46 ERA · 28.6% K · 11.7% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Mason Adams · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

-106 FanDuel51% book71% +20pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRockies 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD COL

Game Markets

SD @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

74%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

71%

Run Line

COL -1.5

38%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

62%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

63%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 12.19 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SD 6.13, COL 6.06
  • Robbie Ray (SD) vs Mason Adams (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RR

Robbie Ray

SD SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against COL
MA

Mason Adams

COL SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

3%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ROBBIE RAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.679
vs Left-handedK%23.3%OPS-against.691
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.756K%21.9%

MASON ADAMS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%30.6%OPS-against.969
vs Left-handedK%26.8%OPS-against.795
SD vs LHP (team)OPS.703K%21.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs ROBBIE RAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs MASON ADAMS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 1·COL 1
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
SD 9·COL 4
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%COL
SD 154 · COL 163 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-16COL 9-3 · Blowout
2026-09-15SD 8-7 · Slugfest
2026-07-29SD 3-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SD63¢ · 63%
COL41¢ · 41%
Total 11
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
SD -1.5— · —
COL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT11→11.5→10.5→11→10.5→11last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

COL OFFENSE

.330L15 team wOBA
+14 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 7mph out to LF
COORS FIELD
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.18 · +
Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind7 mph out to LF
Humidity25%
Rain8%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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