BETFLYAISIGN IN
PHILADELPHIAPHI
83-68 · +2 NL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@WED 6:45 PM ETWSH HOME PARK
71-81 · +4 NL EAST · W4 · 4-6 L10
WASHINGTONWSH
Weather
85°F · 5mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
2-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Zack Wheeler
RHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
3.14
IP
143.1
K/9
10.8
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS4.18 ERA · 29.2% K · 13.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
16%
15%
14%
11%
8%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSweeperSplit-FingerCutterCurveball
Jared Simpson
LHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
6.75
IP
4.0
K/9
9.0
BB/9
6.8
WHIP
0.75
L5 STARTS6.75 ERA · 28.6% K · 21.4% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Zack Wheeler · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

+100 FanDuel50% book72% +22pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 64%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PHI WSH

Game Markets

PHI @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

29%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

20%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

25%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore WSH by 1.67 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.84, WSH 3.17
  • Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs Jared Simpson (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ZW

Zack Wheeler

PHI SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

41%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

54%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.0 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against WSH
JS

Jared Simpson

WSH SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

9%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

28%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

18%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against PHI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ZACK WHEELER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%31.8%OPS-against.555
vs Left-handedK%28.6%OPS-against.710
WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.779K%24.1%

JARED SIMPSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%30.0%OPS-against.300
vs Left-handedK%25.0%OPS-against.000
PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.711K%22.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

WSH BATTERS vs ZACK WHEELER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PHI BATTERS vs JARED SIMPSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PHI 0·WSH 1
2-game set · gm 2 of 2
2026 SEASON
PHI 9·WSH 5
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%PHI
PHI 156 · WSH 145 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-15WSH 6-3
2026-08-06PHI 7-3
2026-08-05WSH 10-4 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PHI66¢ · 66%
WSH39¢ · 39%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
PHI -1.5— · —
WSH +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PHI OFFENSE

.288L15 team wOBA
-28 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

WSH OFFENSE

.302L15 team wOBA
-14 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT85° · 5mph out to CF
NATIONALS PARK
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
85°F
Wind5 mph out to CF
Humidity37%
Rain2%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO