PHILADELPHIAPHI
83-68 · +2 NL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@2026-09-16NYM HOME PARK
69-82 · +5 NL EAST · L3 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
73°F · 8mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PHI NYM

Game Markets

PHI @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

31%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore NYM by 0.44 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.24, NYM 3.80
  • Aaron Nola (PHI) vs Nolan McLean (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AN

Aaron Nola

PHI SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

17%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

76%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
  • 79% to reach 5+ against NYM
NM

Nolan McLean

NYM SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 73% to reach 5+ against PHI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.677K%23.4%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.711K%22.0%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PHI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PHI 0·NYM 0
4-game set · gm 1 of 4
2026 SEASON
PHI 5·NYM 4
9 played · 10 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%NYM
PHI 133 · NYM 164 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-19NYM 6-1
2026-07-18PHI 6-1
2026-07-16NYM 4-1
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PHI45¢ · 45%
NYM59¢ · 59%
Total 8.5
Over49¢ · 49%
Under56¢ · 56%
Run line ±1.5
PHI -1.5 ·
NYM +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

PHI OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-31 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYM OFFENSE

.325L15 team wOBA
+9 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
ENVIRONMENT73° · 8mph out to LF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
73°F
Wind8 mph out to LF
Humidity75%
Rain1%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PHILLIES 53%

Mean score sim 4.23.8 · projected total 8.0 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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