BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYY
88-63 · +2 AL EAST · W3 · 8-2 L10
@WED 1:40 PM ETMIN HOME PARK
70-81 · +4 AL CENTRAL · L3 · 3-7 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
68°F · 4mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Carlos Rodón
LHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
2.94
IP
70.1
K/9
10.0
BB/9
4.5
WHIP
1.12
L5 STARTS2.32 ERA · 27.1% K · 9.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
24%
16%
14%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinker
Zebby Matthews
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
4.98
IP
119.1
K/9
7.5
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.27
L5 STARTS3.94 ERA · 19.5% K · 6.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
21%
14%
13%
12%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballCutterChangeupSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY MIN

Game Markets

NYY @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

28%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore MIN by 0.81 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.72, MIN 3.92
  • Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs Zebby Matthews (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CR

Carlos Rodón

NYY SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 6.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 6.0 strikeouts
  • 74% to reach 5+ against MIN
ZM

Zebby Matthews

MIN SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

72%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 35% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CARLOS RODÓN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.6%OPS-against.538
vs Left-handedK%27.8%OPS-against.685
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.740K%20.5%

ZEBBY MATTHEWS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%18.4%OPS-against.714
vs Left-handedK%20.8%OPS-against.806
NYY vs LHP (team)OPS.740K%24.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs CARLOS RODÓN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs ZEBBY MATTHEWS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYY 2·MIN 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYY 4·MIN 3
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
66%NYY
NYY 92 · MIN 48 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-15NYY 8-1 · Blowout
2026-09-14NYY 8-3
2026-07-05MIN 6-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYY59¢ · 59%
MIN45¢ · 45%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
NYY -1.5— · —
MIN +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→9.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.341L15 team wOBA
+25 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

MIN OFFENSE

.303L15 team wOBA
-13 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT68° · 4mph in from CF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
68°F
Wind4 mph in from CF
Humidity53%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO