BETFLYAISIGN IN
MILWAUKEEMIL
94-57 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 7-3 L10
@WED 6:40 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
75-76 · +3 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 6-4 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
82°F · 5mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Logan Henderson
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
2.34
IP
88.1
K/9
10.1
BB/9
1.5
WHIP
0.78
L5 STARTS1.41 ERA · 26.8% K · 3.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
31%
20%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutter
Jared Jones
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
4.10
IP
85.2
K/9
10.5
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.17
L5 STARTS2.06 ERA · 32.4% K · 10.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
33%
18%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL PIT

Game Markets

MIL @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

33%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

31%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

26%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

26%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore PIT by 0.74 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 3.94, PIT 3.21
  • Logan Henderson (MIL) vs Jared Jones (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LH

Logan Henderson

MIL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

73%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 72% to reach 5+ against PIT
JJ

Jared Jones

PIT SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
  • 75% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

LOGAN HENDERSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.1%OPS-against.541
vs Left-handedK%30.8%OPS-against.542
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.751K%23.3%

JARED JONES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.4%OPS-against.632
vs Left-handedK%29.1%OPS-against.715
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.765K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs LOGAN HENDERSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIL BATTERS vs JARED JONES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIL 1·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIL 5·PIT 7
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%MIL
MIL 165 · PIT 118 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-15MIL 5-1
2026-08-06MIL 5-2
2026-08-05MIL 4-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIL58¢ · 58%
PIT47¢ · 47%
Total 7.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
MIL -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→6.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIL OFFENSE

.358L15 team wOBA
+42 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

PIT OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 5mph in from CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind5 mph in from CF
Humidity79%
Rain16%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO