MIAMIMIA
75-77 · +3 NL EAST · W1 · 4-6 L10
@2026-09-16ARI HOME PARK
ARIZONAARI
Weather
97°F · 1mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMarlins 50%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA ARI

Game Markets

MIA @ ARI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

ARI F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

62%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

64%

Run Line

ARI -1.5

34%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

53%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

MIA projects to outscore ARI by 0.28 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 5.31, ARI 5.03
  • Ryan Gusto (MIA) vs Merrill Kelly (ARI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RG

Ryan Gusto

MIA SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

29%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against ARI
MK

Merrill Kelly

ARI SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

51%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 26% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs LHP (team)OPS.777K%18.0%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.742K%21.4%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 1·ARI 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIA 4·ARI 0
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%MIA
MIA 43 · ARI 0 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-16MIA 4-2
2026-09-15AZ 8-7 · Slugfest
2026-06-11MIA 2-0 · Pitchers duel
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIA47¢ · 47%
ARI57¢ · 57%
Total 9
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
MIA -1.5 ·
ARI +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.599.58.598.59last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.330L15 team wOBA
+14 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

ARI OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT97° · 1mph out to RF
CHASE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Slight offensive tilt.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
97°F
Wind1 mph out to RF
Humidity34%
Rain21%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

MARLINS 50%

Mean score sim 5.35.0 · projected total 10.3 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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