BETFLYAISIGN IN
KANSAS CITYKC
66-85 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L3 · 3-7 L10
@WED 8:10 PM ETHOU HOME PARK
76-75 · +1 AL WEST · W1 · 4-6 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
86°F · 6mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Daniel Lynch IV
LHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
3.52
IP
71.2
K/9
6.2
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS5.09 ERA · 9.8% K · 8.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
24%
24%
17%
SinkerSliderChangeup4-Seam Fastball
Cristian Javier
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+93
ERA
5.50
IP
55.2
K/9
8.9
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.46
L5 STARTS3.90 ERA · 31.9% K · 7.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
49%
25%
16%
4-Seam FastballSweeperChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC HOU

Game Markets

KC @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

45%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore KC by 1.09 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 3.83, HOU 4.92
  • Daniel Lynch IV (KC) vs Cristian Javier (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DI

Daniel Lynch IV

KC SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

82%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

80%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

68%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against HOU
CJ

Cristian Javier

HOU SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

40%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

DANIEL LYNCH IV SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%15.1%OPS-against.730
vs Left-handedK%19.1%OPS-against.455
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.726K%22.0%

CRISTIAN JAVIER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%25.6%OPS-against.874
vs Left-handedK%19.5%OPS-against.702
KC vs LHP (team)OPS.696K%21.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs DANIEL LYNCH IV

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

KC BATTERS vs CRISTIAN JAVIER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
KC 0·HOU 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
KC 1·HOU 3
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%HOU
KC 46 · HOU 50 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-16HOU 4-2
2026-06-14KC 4-0
2026-06-13HOU 8-7 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
KC45¢ · 45%
HOU59¢ · 59%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
KC -1.5— · —
HOU +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→8→9→7.5→8.5→9→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

KC OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

HOU OFFENSE

.301L15 team wOBA
-15 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT86° · 6mph out to LF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
86°F
Wind6 mph out to LF
Humidity57%
Rain4%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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