BETFLYAISIGN IN
BOSTONBOS
82-69 · +3 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@WED 8:05 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
75-76 · +2 AL WEST · W3 · 5-5 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
97°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jake Bennett
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
3.69
IP
105.0
K/9
7.1
BB/9
1.6
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS5.12 ERA · 24.8% K · 2.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
28%
26%
4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeup
MacKenzie Gore
LHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
4.62
IP
161.2
K/9
9.6
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS5.92 ERA · 16.8% K · 14% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
21%
10%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballCurveballChangeupSliderCutterSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS TEX

Game Markets

BOS @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

38%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore BOS by 0.29 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.23, TEX 4.52
  • Jake Bennett (BOS) vs MacKenzie Gore (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JB

Jake Bennett

BOS SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

52%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against TEX
MG

MacKenzie Gore

TEX SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

39%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JAKE BENNETT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%17.5%OPS-against.726
vs Left-handedK%26.9%OPS-against.401
TEX vs LHP (team)OPS.763K%23.8%

MACKENZIE GORE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.0%OPS-against.716
vs Left-handedK%19.8%OPS-against.744
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.748K%21.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs JAKE BENNETT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs MACKENZIE GORE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·TEX 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
BOS 2·TEX 2
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%BOS
BOS 60 · TEX 53 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-16TEX 4-2
2026-06-14TEX 6-4
2026-06-13BOS 6-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS51¢ · 51%
TEX52¢ · 52%
Total 7.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
TEX +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→10.5→7.5→8→10.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-7 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

TEX OFFENSE

.328L15 team wOBA
+12 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT97° · 8mph out to CF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
97°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity35%
Rain1%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO