BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
74-78 · +5 AL EAST · W2 · 5-5 L10
@WED 7:10 PM ETNYM HOME PARK
69-82 · +5 NL EAST · L3 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
72°F · 7mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Chris Bassitt
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
4.88
IP
90.1
K/9
6.6
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.59
L5 STARTS4.70 ERA · 20.5% K · 8.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
23%
22%
SinkerCurveballCutterSweeper4-Seam Fastball
Robert Stock
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
5.93
IP
30.1
K/9
8.6
BB/9
4.5
WHIP
1.75
L5 STARTS5.72 ERA · 18.8% K · 8.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL NYM

Game Markets

BAL @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

33%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore NYM by 0.33 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 4.64, NYM 4.32
  • Chris Bassitt (BAL) vs Robert Stock (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CB

Chris Bassitt

BAL SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against NYM
RS

Robert Stock

NYM SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CHRIS BASSITT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.1%OPS-against.685
vs Left-handedK%15.3%OPS-against.888
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.714K%21.9%

ROBERT STOCK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.6%OPS-against.784
vs Left-handedK%19.8%OPS-against.787
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.707K%24.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs CHRIS BASSITT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs ROBERT STOCK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 2·NYM 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 2·NYM 0
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
54%NYM
BAL 18 · NYM 21 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-15BAL 7-5
2026-09-14BAL 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2025-07-10BAL 7-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL45¢ · 45%
NYM59¢ · 59%
Total 8.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
NYM +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→7.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-30 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYM OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT72° · 7mph out to LF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
72°F
Wind7 mph out to LF
Humidity74%
Rain4%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO