MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
JR Ritchie · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
ATL @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
54%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
34%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
44%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.01 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
ATL SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
34%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
3%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
46%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
31%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
CHC SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
29%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Wind-dependent — check gametime.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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