BETFLYAISIGN IN
SEATTLESEA
70-82 · +3 AL WEST · L3 · 4-6 L10
@TUE 9:38 PM ETLAA HOME PARK
58-93 · +5 AL WEST · W2 · 5-5 L10
LOS ANGELESLAA
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Brian Walsh K-0.1%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Logan Gilbert
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.69
IP
178.0
K/9
9.8
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.06
L5 STARTS5.63 ERA · 31.1% K · 7.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
23%
14%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderSplit-FingerCurveballChangeupCutter
Ryan Johnson
RHP · LAAPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
4.88
IP
90.1
K/9
7.0
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS1.80 ERA · 19.7% K · 8.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
31%
28%
26%
15%
CutterSinkerSplit-FingerSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Logan Gilbert · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

-122 FanDuel55% book73% +18pp

Ryan Johnson · Over 4.5 5+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

+130 Fanatics43% book50% +7pp

Brock Rodden · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

hot stretch + soft matchup

-108 DraftKings52% book58% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMariners 53%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SEA LAA

Game Markets

SEA @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

31%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore LAA by 0.63 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SEA 4.88, LAA 4.25
  • George Kirby (SEA) vs Yusei Kikuchi (LAA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GK

George Kirby

SEA SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

58%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 44% to reach 5+ against LAA
YK

Yusei Kikuchi

LAA SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

75%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

39%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against SEA
DC

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
RA

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
CR

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
JR

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
JC

J.P. Crawford

SEA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
JN

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
ZN

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing George Kirby
CY

Cole Young

SEA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
MT

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing George Kirby
LM

Lazaro Montes

SEA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
WM

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing George Kirby
BR

Brock Rodden

SEA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
VG

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing George Kirby
MB

Moisés Ballesteros

LAA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing George Kirby
JL

Josh Lowe

LAA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing George Kirby
DG

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing George Kirby
CM

Christian Moore

LAA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing George Kirby
TH

Tyler Heineman

LAA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

43%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

17%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

14%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 43% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing George Kirby
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

LOGAN GILBERT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.0%OPS-against.724
vs Left-handedK%30.5%OPS-against.648
LAA vs RHP (team)OPS.676K%25.6%

RYAN JOHNSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.8%OPS-against.734
vs Left-handedK%18.9%OPS-against.774
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.714K%22.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

LAA BATTERS vs LOGAN GILBERT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SEA BATTERS vs RYAN JOHNSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SEA 0·LAA 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
SEA 4·LAA 6
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%LAA
SEA 152 · LAA 168 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-16LAA 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-09-15LAA 6-4
2026-07-03SEA 1-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SEA57¢ · 57%
LAA47¢ · 47%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
SEA -1.5— · —
LAA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SEA OFFENSE

.334L15 team wOBA
+18 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

LAA OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT
ANGEL STADIUM
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight pitcher tilt.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
WALSH
Called K rate-0.1% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr91

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

MARINERS 53%

Mean score sim 4.9–4.2 · projected total 9.1 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

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