BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN DIEGOSD
82-68 · +2 NL WEST · W8 · 9-1 L10
@TUE 8:40 PM ETCOL HOME PARK
55-95 · +5 NL WEST · L8 · 1-9 L10
COLORADOCOL
Weather
77°F · 10mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Walker Buehler
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
4.61
IP
138.2
K/9
7.8
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS3.36 ERA · 23.1% K · 6.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
23%
21%
17%
11%
11%
9%
Cutter4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballSliderChangeupSweeper
Kyle Freeland
LHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+91
ERA
6.37
IP
124.1
K/9
7.5
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
1.46
L5 STARTS3.67 ERA · 16% K · 6.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
22%
21%
15%
12%
4-Seam FastballCurveballCutterChangeupSweeperSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD COL

Game Markets

SD @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

73%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

70%

Run Line

COL -1.5

32%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

64%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

58%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore COL by 0.78 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 6.34, COL 5.56
  • Walker Buehler (SD) vs Kyle Freeland (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
WB

Walker Buehler

SD SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

40%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against COL
KF

Kyle Freeland

COL SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

32%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

WALKER BUEHLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.8%OPS-against.705
vs Left-handedK%21.1%OPS-against.777
COL vs LHP (team)OPS.711K%24.6%

KYLE FREELAND SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.8%OPS-against.926
vs Left-handedK%20.8%OPS-against.708
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.713K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs WALKER BUEHLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs KYLE FREELAND

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 1·COL 0
4-game set · gm 2 of 4
2026 SEASON
SD 9·COL 3
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%COL
SD 154 · COL 162 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-15SD 8-7 · Slugfest
2026-07-29SD 3-1
2026-07-29SD 8-7 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SD67¢ · 67%
COL37¢ · 37%
Total 11.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
SD -1.5— · —
COL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT11→11.5→11→11.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.328L15 team wOBA
+12 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

COL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT77° · 10mph out to LF
COORS FIELD
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.18 · +
Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind10 mph out to LF
Humidity27%
Rain6%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO