NEW YORKNYY
87-63 · +2 AL EAST · W2 · 7-3 L10
@TUE 7:40 PM ETMIN HOME PARK
70-80 · +4 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 3-7 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
68°F · 10mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Max Fried
LHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+106
ERA
2.73
IP
99.0
K/9
8.6
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
0.99
L5 STARTS1.59 ERA · 28.3% K · 8.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
22%
22%
17%
14%
14%
10%
CutterSinker4-Seam FastballCurveballChangeupSweeper
Bailey Ober
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+93
ERA
4.28
IP
117.2
K/9
6.5
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS3.72 ERA · 20.2% K · 9.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
32%
16%
10%
Changeup4-Seam FastballSliderSweeper
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY MIN

Game Markets

NYY @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

26%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore MIN by 1.07 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.73, MIN 3.66
  • Max Fried (NYY) vs Bailey Ober (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MF

Max Fried

NYY SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against MIN
BO

Bailey Ober

MIN SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

66%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 16% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

MAX FRIED SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.2%OPS-against.575
vs Left-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.391
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.740K%20.5%

BAILEY OBER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.701
vs Left-handedK%13.3%OPS-against.743
NYY vs LHP (team)OPS.737K%24.4%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs MAX FRIED

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs BAILEY OBER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYY 1·MIN 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYY 3·MIN 3
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
65%NYY
NYY 91 · MIN 48 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-14NYY 8-3
2026-07-05MIN 6-1
2026-07-04MIN 11-4 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYY64¢ · 64%
MIN40¢ · 40%
Total 8
Over55¢ · 55%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
NYY -1.5 ·
MIN +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT87.588.57.58last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.336L15 team wOBA
+20 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

MIN OFFENSE

.301L15 team wOBA
-15 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT68° · 10mph out to RF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
68°F
Wind10 mph out to RF
Humidity49%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO