MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Jacob Misiorowski · Over 7.5 8+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
MIL @ PIT · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
66%
1st 5 Innings
PIT F5
26%
Game Total
Over 8.5
31%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
29%
Run Line
PIT -1.5
18%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
19%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore PIT by 1.64 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIL SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
96%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
91%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
81%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
52%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
70%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
27%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
24%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
13%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
PIT SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
23%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
4%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
29%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
18%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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