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KANSAS CITYKC
66-84 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 4-6 L10
@TUE 8:10 PM ETHOU HOME PARK
75-75 · +1 AL WEST · L3 · 4-6 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
87°F · 9mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Michael Wacha
RHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.25
IP
182.2
K/9
7.2
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS2.25 ERA · 24.2% K · 5.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
27%
23%
16%
15%
11%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutterSinkerCurveballSlider
Hunter Brown
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
3.52
IP
92.0
K/9
9.8
BB/9
4.5
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS3.28 ERA · 28.2% K · 9.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
28%
20%
9%
4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 60%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC HOU

Game Markets

KC @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

43%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore KC by 0.82 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 3.79, HOU 4.61
  • Michael Wacha (KC) vs Hunter Brown (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MW

Michael Wacha

KC SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

67%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against HOU
HB

Hunter Brown

HOU SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

67%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 65% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MICHAEL WACHA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.0%OPS-against.793
vs Left-handedK%21.3%OPS-against.606
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.727K%22.0%

HUNTER BROWN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.7%OPS-against.657
vs Left-handedK%28.3%OPS-against.676
KC vs RHP (team)OPS.725K%20.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs MICHAEL WACHA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

KC BATTERS vs HUNTER BROWN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
KC 0·HOU 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
KC 1·HOU 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%HOU
KC 46 · HOU 49 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-14KC 4-0
2026-06-13HOU 8-7 · Slugfest
2026-06-13HOU 10-8 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
KC42¢ · 42%
HOU62¢ · 62%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
KC -1.5— · —
HOU +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

KC OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

HOU OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT87° · 9mph out to CF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind9 mph out to CF
Humidity63%
Rain2%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO