BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCWS
77-74 · +1 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
@TUE 6:40 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
77-75 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
—
Home plate ump
David Rackley K-0.2%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Chris Murphy
LHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+106
ERA
4.68
IP
32.2
K/9
9.4
BB/9
4.4
WHIP
1.41
L5 STARTS10.00 ERA · 33.3% K · 9.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
31%
30%
22%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveball
Foster Griffin
LHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.67
IP
166.2
K/9
8.2
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS6.92 ERA · 19.2% K · 9.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
17%
15%
11%
10%
10%
Cutter4-Seam FastballSweeperCurveballChangeupSinkerSplit-Finger
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Davis Martin · Over 2.5 3+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

-123 BetOnline.55% book76% +21pp

Foster Griffin · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

stuff doesn't translate to Ks vs this lineup

-151 DraftKings60% book79% +19pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 54%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CWS CLE

Game Markets

CWS @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

36%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.24 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CWS 4.07, CLE 4.17
  • Chris Murphy (CWS) vs Foster Griffin (CLE)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
CM

Chris Murphy

CWS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

71%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 70% to reach 5+ against CLE
FG

Foster Griffin

CLE SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

19%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against CWS
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Chris Murphy
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Foster Griffin
RG

Randal Grichuk

CWS · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 29% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Foster Griffin
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Foster Griffin
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Chris Murphy
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Murphy
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Murphy
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin
JR

Jake Rogers

CWS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Foster Griffin
BD

Brenton Doyle

CWS · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Murphy
SA

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Foster Griffin
AG

Angel Genao

CLE · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Murphy
PH

Petey Halpin

CLE · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Murphy
TP

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Foster Griffin
LA

Luisangel Acuña

CWS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin
PB

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Chris Murphy
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Murphy
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CHRIS MURPHY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.8%OPS-against.695
vs Left-handedK%20.3%OPS-against.840
CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.661K%21.9%

FOSTER GRIFFIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.6%OPS-against.690
vs Left-handedK%29.1%OPS-against.590
CWS vs LHP (team)OPS.742K%24.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs CHRIS MURPHY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CWS BATTERS vs FOSTER GRIFFIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CWS 1·CLE 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CWS 8·CLE 6
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%CLE
CWS 143 · CLE 188 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-15CLE 7-6 · One-run game
2026-09-14CWS 7-3
2026-08-09CWS 5-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CWS41¢ · 41%
CLE64¢ · 64%
Total 8
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
CWS -1.5— · —
CLE +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→11.5→12.5→11.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CWS OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CLE OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-7 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
RACKLEY
Called K rate-0.2% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr324

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

GUARDIANS 54%

Mean score sim 4.1–4.2 · projected total 8.2 runs · built on locked lineups

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