BETFLYAISIGN IN
BOSTONBOS
82-68 · +3 AL EAST · W2 · 7-3 L10
@TUE 8:05 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
74-76 · +2 AL WEST · W2 · 5-5 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
97°F · 10mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Patrick Sandoval
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
4.58
IP
55.0
K/9
9.3
BB/9
4.4
WHIP
1.76
L5 STARTS6.30 ERA · 23.9% K · 12% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Jacob deGrom
RHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.80
IP
149.1
K/9
11.2
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.08
L5 STARTS3.19 ERA · 37.9% K · 6.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
36%
14%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 63%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS TEX

Game Markets

BOS @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

57%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

44%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

33%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore BOS by 1.10 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 3.58, TEX 4.68
  • Patrick Sandoval (BOS) vs Jacob deGrom (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PS

Patrick Sandoval

BOS SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

72%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against TEX
JD

Jacob deGrom

TEX SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

29%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

55%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

22%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

32%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.2 strikeouts
  • 85% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

PATRICK SANDOVAL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.2%OPS-against.794
vs Left-handedK%28.0%OPS-against.969
TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.698K%22.4%

JACOB DEGROM SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%30.2%OPS-against.654
vs Left-handedK%31.5%OPS-against.613
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.750K%21.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs PATRICK SANDOVAL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs JACOB DEGROM

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·TEX 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
BOS 2·TEX 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
54%BOS
BOS 60 · TEX 52 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-14TEX 6-4
2026-06-13BOS 6-3
2026-06-12BOS 10-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS51¢ · 51%
TEX53¢ · 53%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
TEX +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

TEX OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT97° · 10mph out to CF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
97°F
Wind10 mph out to CF
Humidity31%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO