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BALTIMOREBAL
73-78 · +5 AL EAST · W1 · 4-6 L10
@TUE 7:10 PM ETNYM HOME PARK
69-81 · +5 NL EAST · L2 · 6-4 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
68°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Shane Baz
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
4.05
IP
169.0
K/9
8.0
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.33
L5 STARTS4.53 ERA · 22.8% K · 8.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
33%
18%
4-Seam FastballCurveballCutterSinkerChangeup
Sean Manaea
LHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.79
IP
133.1
K/9
8.5
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS7.53 ERA · 15.6% K · 4.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
32%
20%
9%
4-Seam FastballSweeperSinkerCutterChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Sean Manaea · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

-157 DraftKings61% book73% +11pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL NYM

Game Markets

BAL @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

29%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore NYM by 0.85 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 4.83, NYM 3.98
  • Shane Baz (BAL) vs Sean Manaea (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SB

Shane Baz

BAL SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

47%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against NYM
SM

Sean Manaea

NYM SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

96%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

77%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

66%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SHANE BAZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.5%OPS-against.626
vs Left-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.781
NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.680K%23.4%

SEAN MANAEA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.8%OPS-against.851
vs Left-handedK%28.2%OPS-against.711
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.706K%24.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs SHANE BAZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs SEAN MANAEA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 1·NYM 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 1·NYM 0
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%NYM
BAL 17 · NYM 21 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-14BAL 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2025-07-10BAL 7-3
2025-07-10BAL 3-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL48¢ · 48%
NYM57¢ · 57%
Total 7.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
NYM +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→7→7.5→8→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYM OFFENSE

.335L15 team wOBA
+19 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT68° · 5mph out to LF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
68°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity62%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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