ATLANTAATL
88-63 · +1 NL EAST · L2 · 4-6 L10
@TUE 7:40 PM ETCHC HOME PARK
84-67 · +2 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
CHICAGOCHC
Weather
76°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Martín Pérez
LHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+87
ERA
3.08
IP
131.2
K/9
6.7
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS3.69 ERA · 15.4% K · 11.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
30%
23%
8%
SinkerChangeupCutterCurveball4-Seam Fastball
Kevin Gausman
RHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
4.60
IP
166.1
K/9
9.3
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS4.98 ERA · 28% K · 6.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
39%
10%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSlider
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCubs 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL CHC

Game Markets

ATL @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

38%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.45 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: ATL 4.61, CHC 4.84
  • Martín Pérez (ATL) vs Kevin Gausman (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MP

Martín Pérez

ATL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

33%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against CHC
KG

Kevin Gausman

CHC SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

MARTÍN PÉREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.8%OPS-against.645
vs Left-handedK%20.8%OPS-against.714
CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.758K%21.1%

KEVIN GAUSMAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.3%OPS-against.766
vs Left-handedK%21.4%OPS-against.675
ATL vs LHP (team)OPS.698K%21.5%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

CHC BATTERS vs MARTÍN PÉREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs KEVIN GAUSMAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 0·CHC 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATL 2·CHC 2
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%ATL
ATL 56 · CHC 49 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-14CHC 7-3
2026-05-14CHC 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-05-13ATL 4-1
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ATL46¢ · 46%
CHC58¢ · 58%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
ATL -1.5 ·
CHC +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT9.58.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.294L15 team wOBA
-22 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CHC OFFENSE

.336L15 team wOBA
+20 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
ENVIRONMENT76° · 5mph out to RF
WRIGLEY FIELD
95HR
HR factor0.95 · below avg
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Wind-dependent — check gametime.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity83%
Rain19%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO