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ATH
61-89 · +4 AL WEST · W1 · 7-3 L10
@TUE 6:40 PM ETTB HOME PARK
90-59 · +1 AL EAST · W3 · 7-3 L10
TAMPA BAYTB
Weather
85°F · 8mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jack Perkins
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
6.53
IP
103.1
K/9
10.4
BB/9
4.1
WHIP
1.53
L5 STARTS3.82 ERA · 25.8% K · 15.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
31%
17%
9%
4-Seam FastballSweeperChangeupCutterSinker
Griffin Jax
RHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
3.99
IP
99.1
K/9
9.3
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.24
L5 STARTS3.85 ERA · 25.7% K · 6.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
23%
20%
17%
9%
SweeperChangeupSinker4-Seam FastballCurveballCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATH TB

Game Markets

ATH @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

TB -1.5

36%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

31%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore ATH by 0.41 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATH 3.47, TB 3.88
  • Jack Perkins (ATH) vs Griffin Jax (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JP

Jack Perkins

ATH SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

13%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.0 strikeouts
  • 75% to reach 5+ against TB
GJ

Griffin Jax

TB SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

81%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
  • 81% to reach 5+ against ATH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JACK PERKINS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.813
vs Left-handedK%28.2%OPS-against.843
TB vs RHP (team)OPS.759K%18.5%

GRIFFIN JAX SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.669
vs Left-handedK%27.0%OPS-against.736
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.721K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TB BATTERS vs JACK PERKINS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs GRIFFIN JAX

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 0·TB 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATH 0·TB 3
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
95%TB
ATH 3 · TB 58 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-12TB 8-4
2026-08-12TB 12-4 · Blowout
2026-08-11TB 10-6 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.313L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

TB OFFENSE

.326L15 team wOBA
+10 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT85° · 8mph in from CF
STEINBRENNER FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Interim park post-Tropicana damage.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
85°F
Wind8 mph in from CF
Humidity75%
Rain27%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO