BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN FRANCISCOSF
62-88 · +4 NL WEST · L3 · 4-6 L10
@MON 7:45 PM ETSTL HOME PARK
74-76 · +4 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 4-6 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
86°F · 11mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Landen Roupp
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
4.00
IP
150.2
K/9
8.3
BB/9
4.3
WHIP
1.28
L5 STARTS3.08 ERA · 13.9% K · 13% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
26%
20%
14%
SinkerCurveballChangeupCutter4-Seam Fastball
Quinn Mathews
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
4.11
IP
30.2
K/9
8.2
BB/9
4.1
WHIP
1.50
L5 STARTS4.29 ERA · 22.1% K · 9.7% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SF STL

Game Markets

SF @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

STL -1.5

35%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.41 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SF 4.18, STL 4.23
  • Landen Roupp (SF) vs Quinn Mathews (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LR

Landen Roupp

SF SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against STL
QM

Quinn Mathews

STL SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

47%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against SF

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

LANDEN ROUPP SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.657
vs Left-handedK%21.1%OPS-against.636
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.710K%19.2%

QUINN MATHEWS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.9%OPS-against.743
vs Left-handedK%25.8%OPS-against.669
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.734K%20.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs LANDEN ROUPP

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SF BATTERS vs QUINN MATHEWS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SF 0·STL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
SF 3·STL 0
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%STL
SF 55 · STL 59 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-09SF 7-6 · One-run game
2026-09-09SF 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-09-08SF 5-4 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SF46¢ · 46%
STL58¢ · 58%
Total 8
Over50¢ · 50%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
SF -1.5— · —
STL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SF OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

STL OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT86° · 11mph out to LF
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
86°F
Wind11 mph out to LF
Humidity41%
Rain1%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO