Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Reid Detmers · Over 6.5 7+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
SEA @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAA to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
43%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
39%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
35%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
LAA projects to outscore SEA by 0.54 runs across 5,000 trials.
SEA SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
77%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
73%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
60%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
LAA SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
92%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
83%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
37%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
79%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight pitcher tilt.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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