BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN DIEGOSD
81-68 · +2 NL WEST · W7 · 8-2 L10
@MON 8:40 PM ETCOL HOME PARK
55-94 · +5 NL WEST · L7 · 2-8 L10
COLORADOCOL
Weather
79°F · 16mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Casey Mize
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.70
IP
119.1
K/9
8.1
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS5.22 ERA · 15.2% K · 5.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
25%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerSlurve
Tomoyuki Sugano
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+81
ERA
5.30
IP
137.2
K/9
5.5
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS9.38 ERA · 15.4% K · 6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
22%
20%
19%
11%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSinkerSliderSweeperCutterCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 63%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD COL

Game Markets

SD @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

74%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

72%

Run Line

COL -1.5

25%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

71%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore COL by 1.85 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 7.00, COL 5.15
  • Casey Mize (SD) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CM

Casey Mize

SD SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against COL
TS

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

19%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.2 strikeouts
  • 7% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CASEY MIZE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.708
vs Left-handedK%25.4%OPS-against.506
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.751K%22.2%

TOMOYUKI SUGANO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%13.5%OPS-against.801
vs Left-handedK%14.8%OPS-against.883
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.711K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs CASEY MIZE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs TOMOYUKI SUGANO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 0·COL 0
4-game set · gm 1 of 4
2026 SEASON
SD 8·COL 3
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%COL
SD 153 · COL 162 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-29SD 3-1
2026-07-29SD 8-7 · Slugfest
2026-04-23SD 10-8 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SD64¢ · 64%
COL40¢ · 40%
Total 11
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
SD -1.5— · —
COL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT11→11.5→11→10.5→11.5→11→11.5→11last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.314L15 team wOBA
-2 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

COL OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT79° · 16mph out to RF
COORS FIELD
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.18 · +
Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
79°F
Wind16 mph out to RF
Humidity25%
Rain2%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO