BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYY
86-63 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 7-3 L10
@MON 7:40 PM ETMIN HOME PARK
70-79 · +3 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
59°F · 13mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Will Warren
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
4.05
IP
142.1
K/9
8.9
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS2.24 ERA · 24% K · 8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
28%
20%
11%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSweeperChangeupCurveball
Dean Kremer
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+88
ERA
5.65
IP
71.2
K/9
8.7
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS6.59 ERA · 20.8% K · 10.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
21%
Split-Finger4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY MIN

Game Markets

NYY @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

32%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore MIN by 0.37 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.40, MIN 4.03
  • Will Warren (NYY) vs Dean Kremer (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
WW

Will Warren

NYY SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

28%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against MIN
DK

Dean Kremer

MIN SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

44%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

WILL WARREN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.6%OPS-against.752
vs Left-handedK%20.0%OPS-against.780
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.743K%20.5%

DEAN KREMER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.0%OPS-against.842
vs Left-handedK%22.0%OPS-against.963
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.715K%24.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs WILL WARREN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs DEAN KREMER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYY 0·MIN 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYY 2·MIN 3
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
65%NYY
NYY 90 · MIN 48 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-05MIN 6-1
2026-07-04MIN 11-4 · Blowout
2026-07-03NYY 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYY58¢ · 58%
MIN47¢ · 47%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
NYY -1.5— · —
MIN +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.322L15 team wOBA
+6 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

MIN OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-7 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT59° · 13mph out to LF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
59°F
Wind13 mph out to LF
Humidity93%
Rain56%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO