MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Tarik Skubal · Over 7.5 8+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Tarik Skubal · Over 18.5 19+ Outs
long-leash spot vs softer opp
Nick Lodolo · Under 14.5 <15 Outs
early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup
Nick Lodolo · Under 15.5 <16 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
LAD @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
67%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
24%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
50%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
19%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
56%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
29%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore CIN by 2.15 runs across 5,000 trials.
LAD SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
96%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
91%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
49%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
86%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
CIN SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
39%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
8%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
League’s hottest HR park.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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