KANSAS CITYKC
66-84 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 4-6 L10
@2026-09-14HOU HOME PARK
75-75 · +1 AL WEST · L3 · 4-6 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
89°F · 9mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC HOU

Game Markets

KC @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

44%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore KC by 1.02 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 3.66, HOU 4.68
  • Michael Wacha (KC) vs Hunter Brown (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MW

Michael Wacha

KC SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

75%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

78%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

66%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against HOU
HB

Hunter Brown

HOU SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

55%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

HOU vs LHP (team)OPS.712K%21.1%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

KC vs RHP (team)OPS.725K%20.3%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

KC BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
KC 0·HOU 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
KC 1·HOU 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%HOU
KC 46 · HOU 49 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-14KC 4-0
2026-06-13HOU 8-7 · Slugfest
2026-06-13HOU 10-8 · Slugfest
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
KC42¢ · 42%
HOU62¢ · 62%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
KC -1.5 ·
HOU +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

KC OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

HOU OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT89° · 9mph out to CF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
89°F
Wind9 mph out to CF
Humidity67%
Rain17%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ASTROS 62%

Mean score sim 3.74.7 · projected total 8.3 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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