BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCWS
76-73 · +1 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
@MON 6:40 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
76-74 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
67°F · 6mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Sean Newcomb
LHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
2.77
IP
84.1
K/9
8.3
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.14
L5 STARTS7.50 ERA · 23.3% K · 7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
33%
25%
4-Seam FastballSlurveSinkerChangeup
Gavin Williams
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
3.78
IP
169.0
K/9
12.1
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.09
L5 STARTS5.38 ERA · 39.8% K · 11.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
23%
22%
20%
10%
SweeperCurveball4-Seam FastballSinkerCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 65%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CWS CLE

Game Markets

CWS @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

65%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

53%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

45%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

27%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore CWS by 1.20 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CWS 3.23, CLE 4.43
  • Sean Newcomb (CWS) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SN

Sean Newcomb

CWS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against CLE
GW

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

95%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

77%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

47%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

78%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.4 strikeouts
  • 95% to reach 5+ against CWS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SEAN NEWCOMB SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.6%OPS-against.577
vs Left-handedK%21.2%OPS-against.631
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.701K%20.8%

GAVIN WILLIAMS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%31.5%OPS-against.764
vs Left-handedK%34.8%OPS-against.600
CWS vs LHP (team)OPS.740K%24.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs SEAN NEWCOMB

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CWS BATTERS vs GAVIN WILLIAMS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CWS 0·CLE 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CWS 7·CLE 5
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%CLE
CWS 142 · CLE 187 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-09CWS 5-3
2026-08-08CWS 6-3
2026-08-07CLE 8-2 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CWS44¢ · 44%
CLE60¢ · 60%
Total 7
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
CWS -1.5— · —
CLE +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7→7.5→7last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CWS OFFENSE

.275L15 team wOBA
-41 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CLE OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT67° · 6mph in from CF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
67°F
Wind6 mph in from CF
Humidity42%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO